Ask someone who likes sports to see a sports match after it ends. (to see a recording)
Ask someone who likes to bet each week to bet a larger sum once a year.
Ask someone who likes to bet to bet the number „8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 38”.
For all of these, you’ll almost surely get a surprised look and a negative response.
Now, why is a football match so important to see live? The end has almost zero value at the end. In this situation, can’t we assume you want to find out the match result quicker? Is this the only reason to watch games, to know the result quickly?
Why would you put much more effort into betting each week when you can bet more rarely, with less effort? Oh, you derive satisfaction knowing you could win. But this is all in your head.
Finally, the numbers „8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 38” have the exact same chance as any other combination. They have an advantage, though – most likely, people wouldn’t pick this combination, so it’s less likely to split the win in case they are winning numbers. If you don’t think these numbers have any chance, don’t play at all.
We tend to do irrational things.
I prefer not to watch sports or bet. I think this is much more rational.
