I have this algorithm:
- If both teams are equal or close, bet 0-0;
- If one is a bit better: 1-0;
- If one is much better: 2-0;
- Only when I know almost for sure that there will be lots of goals, I will bet either 1-1 or 2-1.
With this algorithm, I got in the top 15% of players at PC Garage. At Nwradu league, I was in top 1/3.
At times, I trusted my gut more. For example, although the odds were that England would win the cup, I bet on some matches against them.
The conclusion of this story? Don’t bet. Even if you think logically, you can’t beat the odds the platforms give you. You’re much more likely to lose.
Another conclusion – try to think rationally, not emotionally. If the odds are for England, don’t bet on the Netherlands. Go with the math, not with metaphors.
Also, I generally avoid betting; I tried my luck this time.
I like to read about sports; it motivates me. Sometimes, I watch people scoring goals. But to watch entire matches? Not so much.
Also, when betting – most likely, there will be some people pushing their luck more than you. You’ll be better than some of these players by using logic, but it’s very, very hard to be a winner.
Finally, I consider betting to be very damaging to society as a whole. I would forbid all advertising in any form and limit their availability as much as possible.
On my blog, I refuse to write about chess championships in Romania, due to the fact that they tend to be sponsored by betting companies. It’s like I would endorse them, which is not the case.
I didn’t link to the Nwradu league above because a betting company sponsored it. I thought quite a bit if I should even participate or not. It was a free contest – why not?
