Euro betting

Olaf Arndt - 7 years .. oh god !!! 😳

I have this algorithm:

  • If both teams are equal or close, bet 0-0;
  • If one is a bit better: 1-0;
  • If one is much better: 2-0;
  • Only when I know almost for sure that there will be lots of goals, I will bet either 1-1 or 2-1.

With this algorithm, I got in the top 15% of players at PC Garage. At Nwradu league, I was in top 1/3.

At times, I trusted my gut more. For example, although the odds were that England would win the cup, I bet on some matches against them.

The conclusion of this story? Don’t bet. Even if you think logically, you can’t beat the odds the platforms give you. You’re much more likely to lose.

Another conclusion – try to think rationally, not emotionally. If the odds are for England, don’t bet on the Netherlands. Go with the math, not with metaphors.

Also, I generally avoid betting; I tried my luck this time.

I like to read about sports; it motivates me. Sometimes, I watch people scoring goals. But to watch entire matches? Not so much.

Also, when betting – most likely, there will be some people pushing their luck more than you. You’ll be better than some of these players by using logic, but it’s very, very hard to be a winner.

Finally, I consider betting to be very damaging to society as a whole. I would forbid all advertising in any form and limit their availability as much as possible.

On my blog, I refuse to write about chess championships in Romania, due to the fact that they tend to be sponsored by betting companies. It’s like I would endorse them, which is not the case.

I didn’t link to the Nwradu league above because a betting company sponsored it. I thought quite a bit if I should even participate or not. It was a free contest – why not?

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The most important users at an event

GPeC SUMMIT 1-2 Noiembrie: 2 zile de eveniment 100% online, 30+ speakeri internaționali și români, 40+ ore de maraton E-Commerce și Digital Marketing cu cei mai buni specialiști

You organize an event. Who is likely to need planning for that event, a long while ago? Likely, the people for whom time is important. Are these people important? Yes? Are they a majority? No, quite the contrary, I expect them to be just a few.

So, organizers look at the numbers and say, „This event will have 100 participants. For around 5% of them, time is important, and it would be better to announce the event in time.

But for 95% of them, it’s better to announce the event close to the date/time of taking place.”

What comes naturally is that people announce events only a few days before they take place.

Who loses? The most important people for whom time organizing is the most important.

GPeC always announces events many months ahead. Others are announced a few days before an event, sometimes even on the event day, and sometimes 2–3 hours before the event.

„See you this evening!”

„OK, since I’m an important person, I understand that you, the event organizer, might not like me so much, and prefer to have people who get notified hours before the event as participants. Sorry about that.”

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(ir-)Rational

Olaf Arndt - 7 years .. oh god !!! 😳

Ask someone who likes sports to see a sports match after it ends. (to see a recording)

Ask someone who likes to bet each week to bet a larger sum once a year.

Ask someone who likes to bet to bet the number „8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 38”.

For all of these, you’ll almost surely get a surprised look and a negative response.

Now, why is a football match so important to see live? The end has almost zero value at the end. In this situation, can’t we assume you want to find out the match result quicker? Is this the only reason to watch games, to know the result quickly?

Why would you put much more effort into betting each week when you can bet more rarely, with less effort? Oh, you derive satisfaction knowing you could win. But this is all in your head.

Finally, the numbers „8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 38” have the exact same chance as any other combination. They have an advantage, though – most likely, people wouldn’t pick this combination, so it’s less likely to split the win in case they are winning numbers. If you don’t think these numbers have any chance, don’t play at all.

We tend to do irrational things.

I prefer not to watch sports or bet. I think this is much more rational.

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On the society for asking stupid questions

Society for asking stupid questions

There’s a meme:
Source »

Unfortunately, the Society would be great in the following conditions:

  • If things would always be updated in time;
  • If there were no possible misunderstandings from the communicator;
  • If there were no possible misunderstandings from the receiver;
  • If every possible unspecified thing were clear.

Sometimes, by asking obvious questions with obvious answers, you get surprising answers.

I wouldn’t be so hard on people making sure they understood correctly.

Sometimes, you can ask stupid questions and get smart answers.

When someone asks you „How’s the weather in Năvodari?”, surprisingly!, they might not care about the weather itself.

„I trust I make myself obscure” – from the play „A Man for All Seasons”

A favorite quote of Nicolae Steinhardt.

People might ask obvious questions to get non-obvious answers.

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On Inside Out 2 (2024)

Inside Out 2 (2024)

I’ve seen Inside Out 2 (2024).

My thoughts? I recommend you see the first part – Inside Out (2015). I liked the movie a lot; I give it a 10/10.

Should you see it? Not necessarily; I don’t think it’s for everyone. I’ll detail my thoughts below (with spoilers!), I don’t think it’s a great movie for everyone.

But at least a good one? Sure!

Thoughts – with spoilers:

  • „De ce îi este omului de astăzi foame? De iubire și de sens.” – Nicolae Steinhardt în Jurnalul fericirii. The first movie was about love. This movie was about purpose. (love too, but much less so) Note – when I mean „love and purpose,” I mean „emotions and principles,” not necessarily romantic love and spiritual purpose.
  • There’s a book called: „Între Dumnezeu și neamul meu” – Petre Țuțea. In the previous movie, it was about social things (emotions). In this movie, it’s about a higher purpose. Note – it’s not a religious movie, but I think the principle applies well.
  • I like the fact that, unlike the previous iteration, in this movie you are not given a solution. Life is about paradox.
  • I don’t necessarily agree with the principles in the movie, but I liked the play emotions-higher principles.
  • After the movie, I listened to Kansas – Dust in the wind (cover by Margherita Pirri). The movie was not sad, but this was my state. I even wept a bit in the movie, less than in the first movie.
  • I went soon after the movie for a walk-in Tăbăcărie Park in Constanța; it was nice. I photographed some birds.
  • There’s a joke with Ivan Ivanovici. The movie was like a joke – not melancholic, but it gave me a state, I don’t know how to put it.

Who should see the movie? The ones looking for paradoxes and the play between emotions and virtues.

Note—there are two axes—a vertical one for ethics/spirituality/principles/philosophy and a horizontal one for love/emotions/social connections/interactions.

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Repeating jokes

It's tragic how few people ever possess their souls before they die — Oscar Wilde

What’s a joke? It’s an element of surprise. You can make it brutal, a surprise like a shock, or something silly, and you can make it smart; with an insight, you get an idea, and something pops up in your mind. But, no matter how elevated it is, a joke has an element of surprise, by definition.

Now, do people like this kind of surprise? It’s not that clear!

My father likes to use a few jokes and constantly repeat them.

He also likes, at times, to nag people – to push them, to be a bit annoying, to insist.

The first time you see a joke – it might be funny.

The second time – it becomes a bit annoying.

If you have a relationship with someone and they don’t mind if they annoy you, the jokes can be even more annoying.

As a first conclusion of this text – if you repeat jokes a lot and tend not to mind if you annoy people, the jokes might become annoying.

Making fun of a person generally involves at least three persons – the person making the joke, the person who is being mocked, and the audience (one or more people). But in a one-to-one conversation, there are just two parties. There’s no one to laugh at the joke. The laughing party is missing from the situation. The result? There’s one bully and a victim, no one else.

A repeated joke is like an ad with the surprise element (the first time), but it annoys you. If you see the same ad five times, it might annoy you further.

There is a magazine called Dilema in Romania. They try to be funny. Instead of writing „Talk Show”, they say „Tâlc Show”. Instead of writing „Cu ochii-n 4”, they write „Cu ochii-n 3,14”. Instead of „Pe de altă parte”, they say „Pe de altă carte”. „Adio și n-am cuvinte” becomes „Audio și n-am cuvinte”. „Libertatea de expresie” => „Libertatea de impresie”. You get the picture.

The thing is, if you come to the website one time, it might be funny; it will make you think. If, on the other hand, like I do, read the magazine about once a week for years, the joke becomes annoying.

What’s a positive example? Google – They use doodles, which is a funny way to show their logo. But:

  • It’s only once per month or so for a specific version of a search engine (so, on Google.ro, they have one or two per month; on Google.com, one or two per month, something like that).
  • They work hard to make things nice, putting their heart and soul into it.
  • Very importantly, they change things every time. Even for national holidays, they try to make something different each time, so there’s always an element of surprise.

If you change your logo or do something atypical a few times, it’s fine. However, if you do the same thing year after year, it cannot be enjoyable. For example, the Christmas logo has the same new graphic each year. Or on April 1st, they make the same kind of jokes.

You can see my logic in action with the Simpsons intro—they change it considerably each time; you know there’s an effort, and you always want to see what they came up with this time.

If a TV series has the same old intro each time, you’ll get bored and want to skip it.

In conclusion, If you want to annoy people, repeat your jokes and be the same with your „surprises” each time. If you want to delight your audience, make new jokes each time and vary things as much as you can.

If you have a website, don’t write „About Us” in funny ways „Who are we?”, „What do we do?”, „What’s our story?”, „Find out details on us”. Write as simply and as clearly as you can „About Us.” Don’t be creative when people want efficiency – get to the point, and don’t make people wonder, „What does the website mean by «What’s our story»?”. Always write „Contact” or „Contact Us”, instead of „Get in touch”, „Let’s be friends”, „Drop us a message”, or other creative things.

Don’t be creative with the menus.

I agree. This is harder to do than to say. I also often repeat jokes. But I’m working on it and quite aware of this.

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Learning Cybersecurity

Bitdefender Total Security

OK, let’s say you’re thinking about learning Cybersecurity.

Some tips?

There is a big demand in most markets for this field, which will probably increase further.

There are very well-paid top jobs. Cybersecurity specialists are hard to find, and it’s a big opportunity to have good pay at the very top.

There are many career options to explore in this field.

You may learn well independently, but you need equipment for things like networks.

Courses and certifications can sometimes be better than college, but college certainly doesn’t hurt.

You will need to put into practice what you are learning.

Some courses:

You can also read about this on Reddit: 1, 2.

Google Search is, at times, better than the internal search of Reddit.com.

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Context

Angela Sevin - The Borneo office

Sometimes, I see the following things on WhatsApp conversations:

„Does anyone in here …” and they present a situation like „attend classes at …” or „have the phone number of …”?

Of course, the people present nothing else—who are they, and why do they need the information? This is automatically presumed to be irrelevant.

„Are you breathing?”. If you say „Yes,” then the question might follow, likely, again, incomplete.

The solution would be simple – put a detailed question, mention the reasons for which you require the information, and don’t forget to introduce yourself.

There’s another solution, this time on my part – I can ignore the message, which was so poorly formatted.

Some other types of questions: „Are you using Vodafone?” State the full question! Of course, using Vodafone is not enough; it’s just bait for long discussions.

Suddenly, if I want to help, I must answer silly questions and start asking myself.

I’m sorry. You ask silly questions. You should ask them to people who like them. I prefer to give to-the-point answers to to-the-point questions.

If by wanting to help you, I’m forced to start a conversation and grab your answers using pliers; I don’t want to help you.

You need help, and you should bring the details; don’t put your needs on me.

I’m happy to help, but you should do your best to minimize my efforts.

Finally, people find solutions to their queries but don’t bother to update the original question with „It’s fine; I found a solution.”

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Focused writing

fabiola - words

If you write very focused, when even the smallest words count, as bloggers like zoso.ro, nwradu.ro, arhiblog.ro do, you’ll likely get readers who read your article attentively. So, very focused writing, words matter => very focused readers.

This is the same for clicking on links – Zoso and NW Radu are constantly linking out. Thus, people click on things. Thus, they might even click on ads.

I tend to write by repeating stuff, which I think is fine, but the drawback is that you can skip parts of the article and still understand the article. Thus, my blog’s readers might do skimming more.

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